Success Metrics
The activation funnel, stage-gated metrics framework, PMF measurement, and review cadence.
The User Funnel
Every user transitions through four states. Each transition is a different problem to solve.
Signed Up --> Activated --> Engaged --> Paying- Signed Up: Account created. No indication of value yet.
- Activated: Connected MCP to at least one AI app OR completed one mini-app experience.
- Engaged: Has done memory/preference-powered searches or research in Trovella UI AND/OR completed 3+ mini-app experiences.
- Paying: Converted from free to paid tier.
MVP Success Metrics
Define targets before launching. Measure weekly. The first 6 weeks are calibration -- no firm targets until baseline data exists.
| Metric | Definition | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Activation rate | % of signups completing core workflow in first session | 30%+ |
| Week-1 retention | % of activated users returning in week 2 | 40%+ |
| Trial-to-paid conversion | % of free users converting to paid | 5%+ |
| NPS | Would users recommend? | 40+ among early adopters |
| Organic discovery | Signups without direct marketing | Any within 4-6 weeks |
| Engaged | Memory/preference-powered searches or 3+ mini-app completions | Track from day one, set target after 4 weeks of data |
These are diagnostic signals, not automatic kill criteria. Each points to a specific area for improvement:
| If Below Target | Diagnostic |
|---|---|
| Activation < 30% | Product is not communicating value, or core workflow is too complex |
| Week-1 retention < 40% | Problem is not severe or recurring enough to sustain SaaS |
| Trial-to-paid < 5% | Value does not exceed free alternatives enough |
| NPS < 40 | Product is not differentiated enough for word-of-mouth |
| Zero organic discovery after 6 weeks | Product is not remarkable enough for word-of-mouth |
PMF Measurement
Sean Ellis PMF survey at beta Week 4 and Week 6:
"How would you feel if you could no longer use this product?"
| Response | What It Means |
|---|---|
| 40%+ "Very disappointed" | PMF signal -- proceed to public launch |
| Below 40% | Not there yet -- iterate and run another 4-week cycle |
Maximum two 6-week cycles. If the signal is absent after 12 weeks, reassess fundamentally.
Stage-Gated Metrics Framework
Metrics scale with the business. Measuring sophisticated SaaS metrics before there are users wastes time; not instrumenting early enough wastes signal.
Pre-Revenue (Day 1)
Track only these 6 metrics:
| Metric | Target | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Signups | Trending up week-over-week | Top of funnel health |
| Activation rate | 30%+ (see definition above) | Are users finding value? |
| DAU/WAU | Ratio > 0.3 for daily-use products | Engagement baseline |
| Trial-to-paid conversion | 8-15% initially, improve to 15-25% | Revenue readiness |
| Churn rate | Under 5% monthly | Retention baseline |
| Sean Ellis score | 40%+ "Very disappointed" | Product-market fit signal |
$1K-$10K MRR
Add these metrics:
| Metric | Target |
|---|---|
| MRR | Tracking to milestones |
| ARPU | Track trend direction (depends on ICP and pricing model) |
| CAC | Under 12-month payback |
| LTV:CAC ratio | Minimum 3:1, target 5:1 |
| Net revenue retention | 100%+ (110%+ excellent) |
| Gross margin | 75-85% |
$10K-$50K MRR
Add cohort analysis, SaaS Quick Ratio (target 4.0), and customer health scores.
Review Cadence
| Cadence | Duration | Content |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 15 minutes | Operational check-in: MRR, signups, churn events |
| Monthly | 60 minutes | Deep review: cohorts, ARPU trends, funnel analysis |
| Quarterly (at $10K+ MRR) | 2 hours | Strategic review |
Automated Alerts
Set up before launch:
- Churn events -- immediate notification
- Failed payments -- immediate (without dunning automation, involuntary churn costs 5-10% of MRR)
- Metric thresholds breached -- when any key metric crosses its diagnostic threshold
Planned Tooling (All Free at Launch)
| Tool | Purpose | Free Tier Limit |
|---|---|---|
| ChartMogul | SaaS metrics dashboard | Free under $120K ARR |
| Stripe analytics | Real-time payment monitoring | Included |
| PostHog | Product analytics, session replay, feature flags | 1M events/month |
Instrumentation Implications
Knowing what we will measure influences how we build. The product should be instrumented for these events from day one:
- Activation events -- MCP connection, first mini-app completion, first preference capture
- Engagement events -- memory-powered search, preference-powered recommendation, mini-app sessions
- Funnel transitions -- signup-to-activation, activation-to-engagement, free-to-paid
- Cancellation flows -- capture reasons at point of churn (feeds back into product decisions)
See Observability for the technical logging and monitoring infrastructure.
Related Pages
- Target Users -- kill criteria tied to ICP validation
- Go-to-Market -- beta structure and exit criteria that use these metrics
- MVP Scope -- which features each metric evaluates
- Observability -- logging, error tracking, and monitoring infrastructure